On the Street Monthly – Second Half is Here, Rate Cuts are Near?

As we step into the second half of 2024, one of the prevailing themes in the market since the beginning of the year has been the anticipation of potential rate cuts. Economists had varying predictions, with some forecasting as many as 6 rate cuts for the year. However, as we approach July, the Federal Reserve […]

On the Street Monthly – Bad News is Good News?

There have been numerous occasions when bad economic news has triggered a positive market reaction. This pattern repeated with the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On June 4th, the JOLTS data was released, detailing job openings among other metrics. The anticipated number of job openings was 8.35 million, but the report […]

On the Street Monthly – Sell in May?

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a robust performance, but April brought a setback as major indices experienced a decline across the board. Factors such as persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment, shaking confidence in the market. Given this backdrop, we wanted to explore the potential path ahead. […]

On the Street Monthly – Continuing Rally or Spring Break?

As the first quarter of 2024 drew to a close, the broader markets continued their upward trajectory, driven by factors that caught investors off guard. Despite expectations of declining inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 3.2%, nearly unchanged from the beginning of the year. While some anticipated rate cuts, the Federal Reserve […]

On the Street Monthly – Market Strength Through Less Volatility

As the stock market persists in its upward trajectory, it has notably exhibited minimal daily volatility. Remarkably, there hasn’t been a single-day movement of more than 2% since the previous summer. This occurrence marks the 14th instance in the past 70 years where the S&P 500 has maintained such stability for at least six months. […]

On the Street Monthly – Historical Performance After S&P 500 Hits New All-Time Highs

On January 19, the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs when it broke through its previous high set on January 3, 2022.  This marks a span of 511 trading days between consecutive all-time highs, ranking as the 6th longest duration since 1950. There have been a total of 15 instances, including the current one, where […]

On the Street Monthly – Should We Worry About the Election?

As we step into a year poised for political debates, it’s crucial to sift through the noise and distinguish it from historical patterns as it relates to investing. A noteworthy trend, consistent since 1950, reveals that the S&P 500 has demonstrated positive performance in every year during the first term of a President. (Source: Carson […]

On the Street Monthly – Cautiously Optimistic

If you’ve ever cornered a market forecaster and inquired about their outlook, you’ve likely encountered the phrase “Cautiously Optimistic.” Admittedly, we’ve used these words with investors, and I find myself ambivalent about them. As investors, we embrace risk, so a degree of caution is inherent. Yet, we willingly take risks because, historically, there has always […]

On the Street Monthly – With Pessimism Growing, Will There be a Yearend Rally?

With the holiday season approaching, we are entering the months where the stock market has historically performed the best.  Below is a chart of the S&P 500 Index average returns for each month dating back to 1928.  If you squeeze this timeline down to the last 53 years, November is actually the best month in […]

On the Street Monthly – Seasonal Weakness or Something More?

With the major stock and bond indices all experiencing declines in the third quarter, the question begs if this is merely a seasonal pattern where the market tends to underperform, or if there are underlying factors at play. To explore this question, we delve into historical data related to the stock market in pre-election years. […]