On the Street Monthly – So Goes January, So Goes the Year?

January’s stock market performance often garners significant attention, and for good reason—historical trends suggest it can set the tone for the year. The S&P 500 ended the first month up 2.7%, and when January returns exceed 2%, history points to a strong year ahead. The chart below examines all instances since 1950 when the S&P […]

On the Street Monthly – Back-to-Back Years of Big Gains, What’s Next?

Although 2024 didn’t close with a rally, it was still a strong year for the stock market overall. It’s natural to feel cautious after a year of impressive gains—especially after back-to-back years of over 20% returns in the S&P 500. Shouldn’t we expect a slowdown? Interestingly, the data suggests otherwise. The chart below highlights years […]

On the Street Monthly – Post Election Rally & Investment Sentiment

As we move past the election results, markets have been trending upward, entering a seasonally strong period of the year. While many indices are reaching record highs, we’re not witnessing a sense of euphoria—though there is a noticeable increase in optimism. Below is a graph of the U.S. Investor Sentiment, a weekly survey that tracks […]

On the Street Monthly – Election Results & Market Implications

As the election approaches, many investors are weighing how outcomes might impact the markets depending on which candidate wins. While the president’s economic influence is often debated, the roles of the Senate and House are also significant from a historical perspective. The chart below shows annual stock market returns based on political party control, including […]

On the Street Monthly – How Bull Markets Fare in October

The markets began September, historically one of the toughest months of the year, on a fearful note. In the first three trading days, the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, leading investors to brace for another weak September. However, after the initial downturn, the markets rebounded and ended the month in positive territory, marking the first time […]

Summer Rally Extending or Extended?

As we enter September, investors who resisted the urge to “sell in May and go away” have been rewarded. In our June newsletter, we highlighted that during election years, June through August has historically been strong for the market. True to form, the S&P 500 gained 7.0% over this period, closely aligning with the historical […]

On the Street Monthly – Growth Scare or Something More?

As we entered August, the market shifted direction, retreating in response to a weaker jobs report and an unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Despite the market pullback, Q2 earnings are projected to rise by 11.5%, marking the strongest quarter since late 2021.  (Source: FactSet) As investors assess the current market risks […]

On the Street Monthly – Second Half is Here, Rate Cuts are Near?

As we step into the second half of 2024, one of the prevailing themes in the market since the beginning of the year has been the anticipation of potential rate cuts. Economists had varying predictions, with some forecasting as many as 6 rate cuts for the year. However, as we approach July, the Federal Reserve […]

On the Street Monthly – Bad News is Good News?

There have been numerous occasions when bad economic news has triggered a positive market reaction. This pattern repeated with the latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On June 4th, the JOLTS data was released, detailing job openings among other metrics. The anticipated number of job openings was 8.35 million, but the report […]

On the Street Monthly – Sell in May?

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a robust performance, but April brought a setback as major indices experienced a decline across the board. Factors such as persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment, shaking confidence in the market. Given this backdrop, we wanted to explore the potential path ahead. […]