After all the ups and downs in April, a bunch of big firms lowered their year-end market targets. They pointed to uncertainty around things like tariffs, inflation, and the chance that we won’t see any interest rate cuts in 2025. As the market started to wobble, analysts—no surprise—rushed to update their predictions for next year. […]
Following the tariff announcements in early April, the market dropped sharply—down 11% in just two days. Investor anxiety surged to record levels as markets reacted to the uncertainty surrounding new trade policies. However, from that low point, the market rebounded 11.8%, highlighting just how quickly sentiment can shift. Since 1950, there have only been seven […]
As the final touches were being made to the monthly newsletter, it all began to feel outdated with the events unfolding in April. The initial commentary addressed tariffs, the report, and their potential short-term market impact. While a tariff announcement had been expected, few analysts and economists had anticipated what the chart below ultimately revealed. […]
As the market pulled back from its January gains, individual investors became increasingly bearish. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which gauges individual investors’ expectations for the market over the next six months, has been conducted since 1987. Over that time, there have been 11 instances where bearish sentiment exceeded bullish sentiment by 40% or more. […]
January’s stock market performance often garners significant attention, and for good reason—historical trends suggest it can set the tone for the year. The S&P 500 ended the first month up 2.7%, and when January returns exceed 2%, history points to a strong year ahead. The chart below examines all instances since 1950 when the S&P […]
Although 2024 didn’t close with a rally, it was still a strong year for the stock market overall. It’s natural to feel cautious after a year of impressive gains—especially after back-to-back years of over 20% returns in the S&P 500. Shouldn’t we expect a slowdown? Interestingly, the data suggests otherwise. The chart below highlights years […]
As we move past the election results, markets have been trending upward, entering a seasonally strong period of the year. While many indices are reaching record highs, we’re not witnessing a sense of euphoria—though there is a noticeable increase in optimism. Below is a graph of the U.S. Investor Sentiment, a weekly survey that tracks […]
As the election approaches, many investors are weighing how outcomes might impact the markets depending on which candidate wins. While the president’s economic influence is often debated, the roles of the Senate and House are also significant from a historical perspective. The chart below shows annual stock market returns based on political party control, including […]
The markets began September, historically one of the toughest months of the year, on a fearful note. In the first three trading days, the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, leading investors to brace for another weak September. However, after the initial downturn, the markets rebounded and ended the month in positive territory, marking the first time […]
As we enter September, investors who resisted the urge to “sell in May and go away” have been rewarded. In our June newsletter, we highlighted that during election years, June through August has historically been strong for the market. True to form, the S&P 500 gained 7.0% over this period, closely aligning with the historical […]
