As we wrapped up the first month of 2026, the S&P 500 posted a gain of 1.5%. There are several indicators that occur early in the year that have historically provided insight into how the remainder of the year may unfold. One of the most well-known is the “January Indicator,” which examines how January’s performance […]
While 2025 has been marked by plenty of ups and downs, one of the most important developments has been the massive investment technology companies are making in artificial intelligence. In the third quarter alone, leading firms spent more than $100 billion building AI infrastructure, helping support overall market performance. (Source: Y-Charts) Nvidia has grown its […]
As we enter the final stretch of 2025, markets have taken investors on a ride. After sharp volatility in April following tariff announcements, stocks rebounded and delivered seven straight months of gains. November finished only slightly positive, recovering from an early 6% pullback. Now, as we move through December, a month that historically favors the […]
After six straight months of gains from May through October, the market has shifted its attention to third quarter earnings. With 91 percent of S&P 500 companies reporting, the results have been strong. A large majority have exceeded expectations for both earnings and revenue, and overall earnings growth is running at 13.1 percent compared with […]
Many have drawn parallels between the internet boom of the late 1990s and the recent surge in artificial intelligence. To explore that comparison, we charted the Nasdaq Composite, with the blue line representing 1995–2000 and the orange line showing performance from 2023 to the present. (Source: DataTrek) While investors often recall the dot-com bubble’s collapse […]
The Federal Reserve meets next week, and the futures market is signaling a 91.8% chance of a rate cut. The remaining 8.2% even suggests the possibility of two cuts — meaning the market is fully expecting at least a quarter-point (25bps) reduction. Typically, rate cuts are associated with a struggling economy or falling markets. But […]
The S&P 500 has surged more than 30% since its April lows, reaching new all-time highs. While investor confidence remains cautious rather than euphoric—which is a positive sign—August has historically been a tough month for the market, particularly in post-election years. Below is a chart showing the S&P 500’s monthly returns since 1950, highlighting the […]
After all the ups and downs in April, a bunch of big firms lowered their year-end market targets. They pointed to uncertainty around things like tariffs, inflation, and the chance that we won’t see any interest rate cuts in 2025. As the market started to wobble, analysts—no surprise—rushed to update their predictions for next year. […]
Following the tariff announcements in early April, the market dropped sharply—down 11% in just two days. Investor anxiety surged to record levels as markets reacted to the uncertainty surrounding new trade policies. However, from that low point, the market rebounded 11.8%, highlighting just how quickly sentiment can shift. Since 1950, there have only been seven […]
As the final touches were being made to the monthly newsletter, it all began to feel outdated with the events unfolding in April. The initial commentary addressed tariffs, the report, and their potential short-term market impact. While a tariff announcement had been expected, few analysts and economists had anticipated what the chart below ultimately revealed. […]
